A Short Note on Bitcoin Valuation

We know now that Bitcoin moves a lot more like FAANG stocks than Gold. It is not an imperfect hedge or even a reliable store of value. It is not a security because most regulators can’t agree on what a “security” is – except that it is traded like securities (with futures and proposed ETF) and it is not a commodity, because well, you can’t see it.

Its numerous skeptics put its value at zero. My broker puts the value of a stock pledged as margin, when is a small or midcap stock at … zero after a 100% haircut – it doesn’t matter to my broker if its EPS is growing at 50% CAGR. Value is in the eye of the beholder.

To the Romans, early Christians were a nuisance but to its believers – they were witnessing a miracle. Similarly, old finance tends to see Bitcoin as either a useless or dangerous nuisance, while the zealots value it bizarrely between 10k to 100k.

What is noteworthy is an anonymous creator and “immaculate conception” of some trustless token that is not backed by sovereign guarantee but is still secured and scaled by a collaboration of unpaid programmers across borders. A miracle, after all, is something that cannot be replicated.

So what is the fair value of one BTC in USD/Yuan/Rupee?

Doesn’t matter because 1 BTC = 1 BTC.

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