Taneja Aerospace: Speculation’s swift knife, whither will it turn?

This post is not buy/sell/hold advice. Please see the disclaimer at the end before reading further

  • Taneja Aerospace and Aviation Limited (TAAL) operates the Hosur Airstrip, 30 minutes from Electronic City Bengaluru
  • The airstrip is 2km long and can accomodate Boeing and Airbus class of narrow-body aircraft, with in-house hangar and repair facilities
  • The government under its low cost flying or UDAN (Uday Desh Ka Aam Nagrik) scheme recently airmarked TAAL’s Hosur Aerodome as a hub for low-cost domestic flights
  • Inspite of many triggers in place TAAL has historically failed to produce returns on assets making it a speculative grade stock

Continue reading “Taneja Aerospace: Speculation’s swift knife, whither will it turn?”

Linkfarm: Stuff I am reading (week of 6/3)

Where do real estate profits come from?

This economic phenomenon is making governments sick

The forgotten commodity that will outperform oil and natural gas

The best article on stock picking

The company with the world’s strongest moat

Fintech will slaughter Indian banks

A beginners guide to intermittent fasting

How social darwinism made modern china

The great land rush in ethiopia

Self Sustainable Growth Rate: a measure of Inherent Growth Potential of a Company

Brazil’s scandal hits soyabean prices

Grauer and Weil: Are the Risks worth the optionality of future growth?

This post is not buy/sell/hold advice. Please see the disclaimer at the end before reading further

  • Grauer and Weil is one of India’s largest companies in the Electroplating and Coatings chemicals business.
  • It is a diversified conglomerate of both commodity and speciality chemicals, with interests in paints and real estate.
  • The diversified businesses may be holding down growth in the core chemicals business
  • Management decisions need to be closely monitored

Continue reading “Grauer and Weil: Are the Risks worth the optionality of future growth?”

The New World: Karuturi Global and how (not) to invest in Ethiopia

The African nation of Ethiopia is famous for its cuisine, long distance runners and arabica coffee. Few however think of Ethiopia as a rising African power.

  • Since 1990, the rate of return on foreign direct investment in Africa has averaged 29%, nearly tripling FDI in Europe.
  • The Ethiopian economy has grown at a rate of 10% over the last 10 years.
  • Ethiopia has its own space program.

Continue reading “The New World: Karuturi Global and how (not) to invest in Ethiopia”

Linkfarm: Stuff I am Reading (Week of 5/14)

Facebook’s 10 year plan: an Infographic (Ritholtz Wealth Management)

Runway Injustice: The outrageous cost of being a model (CNN Money)

Forget H1Bs, Indians line up for the EB5 “Golden Visa” (Moneylife)

Two Subprime Shocks in India (Bloomberg Gadfly)

The First (and Last?) Competitive Advantage (Seeking Alpha via Farnam Street)

What’s it like to lose £350m? A rogue trader confesses (The Guardian)

Surviving the Coming Stock Market Crisis (Safal Niveshak)

Justine Musk: Elon Musk’s starter wife (Marie Claire)

Shenzhen stock market in charts (Bloomberg)

Ridley Scott: ‘I wanted to scare the shit out of people. That’s the job’ (The Guardian: Films)

Thoughts on using the Discounted Cash Flow for Small Caps

Interesting lecture by Professor Aswath Damodaran on intrinsic valuation, where he breaks down the use of the Discounted Cash Flow assumptions in some detail:

Interesting how the students approach DCF and seem to collectively conclude one of the Professor’s portfolio stocks (Twitter!) is overvalued by 1000%+.

It appears that in his investment decisions the Professor can take a contrarian position vis-a-vis his own field of study – where he is counted as among the best. A lesson for all the excel snobs amongst us. Stay humble.

Perhaps this is also because – as his lecture amply demonstrates – the DCF calculation has a lot of moving parts. When you have a lot of moving parts, the risk of error in each moving part gets multiplied to give you an overall risk of error with valuation using DCF.

So it helps to keep it simple while doing valuations. Here’s why I stick to a conventional, back of the envelope calculations like the Price Multiple Model to begin with. I wrote about how an investor can use the Price Multiple Model as a first step valuation, and combine it with other models.

Apart from the complexity, there are other problems with using the DCF for small caps:

  • The Small Cap Risk Premium is hard to determine and there is no sure way to know it exists!
  • Small Caps are subject to cyclical risks, which can lead to wrong factor assumptions in valuation
  • It is hard to predict steady returns with young companies
  • Cost of debt can be hard to calculate for Small Caps that are not investment grade or do not have a debt rating assigned to them

In valuing a Small Cap, it helps to understand intangibles first. It is a case-based approach that takes into account promoter quality, market size, competition, input prices, the balance sheet and scuttlebutt among many other factors.

In short – investing in small caps is a little like Venture Capital investing. Numbers are needed for comfort, before you take that leap across the void of permanent Capital Destruction.