Investing in Road Infrastructure stocks? Here’s one strategy.

This post is not buy/sell/hold advice. Please see the disclaimer at the end before reading further

While the goose of private capex has been cooked, the Government of India is taking every step to boost public spending on infrastructure.  The focus is currently on roads. In 2015-16, NHAI awarded about 50 projects to build 2,624 kilometres of roads. A budget of US$22.35 billion has been set out by the Indian Government for infrastructure projects, for which highway construction will play a major part. Continue reading “Investing in Road Infrastructure stocks? Here’s one strategy.”

Kriti Nutrients and Sanwaria Agro: Soya and Edible Oils back in focus

This post is not buy/sell/hold advice. Please see the disclaimer at the end before reading further

Soya products and the edible oils are areas I have been closely following. India imports  67% of its demand for edible oil. This is economically unsustainable due to several reasons. There are a few key factors about the industry:

  • The demand for edible oils is inelastic and insulated from macroeconomic conditions as cooking is a basic need for survival.
  • India has failed to be self-sufficient in edible oil production due to misaligned incentives for farmers and low agricultural efficiency, which causes Indian soya to be globally uncompetitive in prices.
  • Soya has applications beyond cooking oil in cattle feed (poultry), food proteins, value added products (like soy milk).
  • China is driving the global demand in soya and increase in prices of the raw material.

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Continue reading “Kriti Nutrients and Sanwaria Agro: Soya and Edible Oils back in focus”

Bitcoin above $3000. Is it too late to buy Cryptoassets?

NOTE: This post is NOT Buy or Sell advise. Cryptocurrencies are very volatile, are subject to legal / regulatory risk and also carry a risk of permanent capital destruction.

Bitcoin went past $3000 as “segregated witness” or Segwit, the latest version of its open source code is days from locking in to the nodes on its blockchain on August 8th, 2017.

Segwit aims to solve Bitcoin’s long standing scaling problem and serves as a positive fundamental trigger to its price. For stock investors, imagine capacity expansion without the capex. True to fashion, the market bought the rumor before the news and pushed the price above the last all time high of $3019 in June.

This move caught many technical analysts by surprise, as Bitcoin – honey badgerlike – continues to shrug off bad news and humiliate market oracles. I think what is most significant is that the long-term underlying bullish trend has been confirmed this week, which means the odds of a major Bitcoin “crash” have plummeted and a $5000 to $10,000 Bitcoin price is now in sight.

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Suprise! While the RSI and other momentum indicators suggested a correction the breakout in the simple moving average confirmed the direction of the trend.

So is it too late to enter? Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. The fair price is unknown. The market price is determined by demand and supply. It has gone up too much too fast. It’s in a bubble. All of this fear, uncertainty and doubt is legitimate but not in the ways one might think. Continue reading “Bitcoin above $3000. Is it too late to buy Cryptoassets?”

Linkfarm. Stuff I am Reading (Week of 7/21)

Inside the Mind of Jeff Bezos

JP Associates – the road to hell is paved with good intentions

Fundamental Analysis : Book Value

Investing in the Roads Sector : Problems Remain

Farmer Protests in MP and Soya Prices

Professor Sanjay Bakshi on Killer Jeans

On Cryptocurrencies:

What is it like to lose a large number of Bitcoins?

I was wrong about Ethereum

Four things to know about Bitcoin Bubbles

Inside the Rise and Fall of Ethereum

Reflections on the Best Blockchain Tweets Ever Written

I am not worried about Bitcoin but I am losing sleep over Ethereum

Bitcoin and Ethereum: The Puzzle of valuing Cryptocurrencies

Linkfarm: Stuff I am Reading (Week of 6/25)

How Elon Musk Plans to Conquer Mars

Kroger Krushed, Amazon Ascendent

How to Use Volume to Improve Your Trading

Elements of Enduring Companies

No India story here as 60% of Nifty earnings linked to global factors: Sanjeev Prasad

How genetics is settling the Aryan migration debate

Will airport in Hosur steal Bangalore’s thunder?

The bizarre antics of Infosys’ former hotshots just reached another level

One type of motivation may be key to success

India: Why its Attempt to Go Digital Will Fail